SHFE tin prices fluctuated upward during the night session, and trading in the spot market was sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]

July 23, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) fluctuated upward during the night session, closing at 269,300 yuan/mt, up 0.71% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to Japan's NHK, the US and Japan agreed to set tariffs on Japanese auto imports at 15%. Citing government sources, the report stated both sides agreed to reduce additional tariffs on Japanese cars from the previously planned 25% to 12.5%, bringing the total tariff to 15% when combined with the initial 2.5% duty. (Bullish★) (2) US Treasury Secretary Besant announced on the 22nd in a Fox News interview that the third round of China-US trade talks will be held next Monday and Tuesday in Stockholm, Sweden. Previous talks occurred in Geneva and London. Reports indicate August 12 marks the deadline for the China-US tariff hike suspension, with the latest negotiations aiming to extend this deadline. (3) Tariffs—①US Treasury Secretary Besant: August 1 remains a "relatively hard deadline" for all nations. EU trade negotiations proceed separately from Russia-Ukraine sanction talks. Japanese negotiations are progressing very smoothly. ②Ontario Premier: Electricity export taxes remain under consideration. ③South Korea considers painful concessions to avoid comprehensive US tariffs. ④Trump: Reached trade deal with the Philippines, imposing 19% tariffs on Philippine goods. The Philippines will open its market to US products with zero tariffs. ⑤US releases details of trade agreement with Indonesia. ⑥Canadian PM: No "US-favorable deal for Canada" currently on the table.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production areas like Yunnan. Some smelters may maintain maintenance shutdowns or implement minor production cuts in July. (Bullish★) (2) Demand side: PV sector: Post-installation rush, tin bar orders decline in east China with reduced operating rates at some producers. Electronics: South China's electronic end-users enter off-season amid high tin prices, maintaining only essential orders due to strong wait-and-see sentiment. Other sectors: Stable demand in tinplate and chemical industries without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: The spot market remains sluggish with thin overall transactions. Most traders report single-digit deals, while a few complete approximately one truckload. As SHFE tin prices continue rising, downstream enterprises primarily utilize existing inventory for production amid declining end-user orders.
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